Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies by Josef Settele

By Josef Settele

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Argyronome HÜBNER, [1819] is a junior subjective synonym of Argynnis FABRICIUS, 1807 (Simonsen 2006); thus: Argynnis laodice. • Coenonympha iphioides is a subspecies of C. glycerion. (Wiemers 2007). • Coenonympha darwiniana is a subspecies of C. gardetta (Wiemers 1998, 2007, Porter et al. 1995). • Although Erebia arvernensis and E. carmenta are probably distinct species (Albre, et al. 2008); at present their distribution data cannot be separated from E. cassioides for technical reasons and thus they have to be treated as a “complex” together with the “western” E.

Climatic conditions: orange – unsuitable; green – hostile; black line – modelled threshold GRAS (A1FI) BAMBU (A2) SEDG (B1) Carcharodus lavatherae (Hesperiidae) 2050 2080 39 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies 2050 Carcharodus flocciferus (ZELLER, 1847) – Tufted Marbled Skipper 2080 40 © Rudi Verovnik Full dispersal No dispersal SEDG 460 (10 92%) -1148 (-27 25%) BAMBU 1228 (29 15%) -1188 (-28 2%) GRAS 104 (2 47%) -1661 (-39 43%) SEDG 2641 (62 69%) -1670 (-39 64%) BAMBU 2427 (57 61%) -2346 (-55 68%) GRAS 2972 (70 54%) -2925 (-69 43%) Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’×10’ grid cells; present niche space: 4213 cells) The Tufted Marbled Skipper can be found on flower-rich grasslands.

98). Climate risk category: HHHR. Observed species distribution (50 × 50 km² UTM grid; black circles) and modelled actual distribution of climatic niche (orange areas) Multidimensional climatic niche. Occurrence probability defined by accumulated growing degree days until August (Gdd) and soil water content (Swc) for combinations of minimum, lower tercile, upper tercile and maximum values of annual temperature range and annual precipitation range. Climatic conditions: orange – unsuitable; green – hostile; black line – modelled threshold GRAS (A1FI) BAMBU (A2) SEDG (B1) Erynnis marloyi (Hesperiidae) 2050 2080 35 Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies 2050 Carcharodus alceae (ESPER, 1870) – Mallow Skipper 2080 36 © Chris van Swaay Full dispersal No dispersal SEDG 3884 (30 9%) -568 (-4 52%) BAMBU 2554 (20 32%) -1255 (-9 98%) GRAS 2940 (23 39%) -1476 (-11 74%) SEDG 1889 (15 03%) -2106 (-16 75%) BAMBU -222 (-1 77%) -4815 (-38 3%) GRAS -1188 (-9 45%) -6139 (-48 83%) Changes in climatic niche distribution (in 10’×10’ grid cells; present niche space: 12571 cells) The Mallow Skipper is a butterfly of warm, grassy places, usually with rough vegetation.

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