Cognitive Strategies in Stochastic Thinking by Roland W. Scholz

By Roland W. Scholz

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Our data cannot answer the question why the extremity of base - rates affects behavior. To answer this question, other methods have to be applied (see Chapters 3 and 4), but obviously response behavior is sensitive to the variation of numerical parameters. At this point, we wish to mention that comparisons with BAR - HILLEL's data, 1980 (cf. , the Motor problem, may elicit considerably different response patterns. Thus BAR-HILLEL's confirmatory results on the validity of the specificity construct could not be replicated by our data.

43) of the question in the Cab problem. Although the need for an investigation of subjects' understanding has been recognized, empirical research into this problem is still missing, as far as we know. We wiIl view this problem in detail in Chapters 3 and 4. 4. ). The present situation is that we have some knowledge about how the modal and perhaps the median subject is responding, but we have very little idea about what the rest of the subjects are doing, and how they assess their probability judgments.

2. , the indeterminacy of the solution, for example, by introducing a theory about the information). 1. 1. Typically, "research has been focused on data which reflect only the end product of the decision processes ... " (PAYNE, BRAUNSTEIN, & CARROLL, 1978, p. 17). For an analysis of human inference and cognition, both the subject's understanding or internal representation of the text, his/her goals (cf. GRONER, et al. 1983), and the individual information processing 24 PART I and conclusions, should be indispensible objects of study.

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